Financial planning scenario · 2026–2031

Pickleball
Plan

A plain-language guide to the proposed four-court destination business, including 32 cabanas, restaurant service, tours, memberships, and clinics.

Full capital need$2.64M

Year-1 revenue$2.22M

Year-1 NOI$1.29M

Simple payback2.0 yrs

Read this first

This is a resort model with pickleball—not court rentals alone.

In Year 1, cabanas produce about 76% of revenue. Courts, memberships, and clinics together produce about 10%. The headline return depends on the whole lodging-and-hospitality business working.

Scenario, not a promise

The 109% IRR and $34.3M NPV include a $52.0M Year-5 sale value based on a 9% terminal cap rate. These figures should not be presented as guaranteed returns.

How the business earns money

Six connected income streams.

All six are part of the base planning scenario.

76.2%

Cabana stays

32 cabanas at $3,000 single / $4,000 double per week.

$1.69M

9.8%

Restaurant

182 operating days at $1,500 average daily revenue.

$218K

4.2%

Court rentals

Four courts at $40 per court-hour and 25% Year-1 use.

$93K

3.6%

Tours & other rentals

182 days at a modeled average of $550 per day.

$80K

3.5%

Clinics & events

Six weeks, 32 participants per week, and a $500 program fee.

$77K

2.7%

Memberships

100 annual members at $750, reduced by the 80% Year-1 ramp.

$60K

Capital plan

What must be funded before opening.

The funding target covers the complete project plan, including an opening cash reserve.

Where the money comes from

$2,635,150

Partner A$1,000,000 · 38%Partner B$1,635,150 · 62%

Partner A	Land + fixed oversight	$1,000,000
Partner B	Development + opening reserve	$1,635,150
Debt	None assumed	$0
Total		$2,635,150

Where the money goes

$2,635,150

Land$800KOversight$200KSoft + site$206KHard costs$1.07MBuffer$128KReserve$232K

Land + fixed oversight	$1,000,000
Soft, site, and hard costs	$1,276,000
10% construction contingency	$127,600
Three-month opening reserve	$231,550
Total	$2,635,150

Planning basis

This scenario uses 200,000 m² / 49.4 acres. Final plans remain subject to the confirmed parcel and legal survey.

The court plan

Four courts, used more each year.

The court-rental calculation assumes eight sellable hours per court per day at $40 per hour.

YearUse of available hoursRental revenue

202725%$93,440

202830%$140,160

202935%$163,520

203040%$186,880

203145%$210,240

Five-year operating forecast

Revenue grows from $2.2M to $6.7M.

The model assumes higher lodging occupancy, 5% annual lodging-rate growth, more court use, more members, and more event weeks.

$2.2M$0.9M$1.3M

2027

$3.6M$1.2M$2.4M

2028

$4.6M$1.5M$3.1M

2029

$5.6M$1.7M$3.9M

2030

$6.7M$2.0M$4.7M

2031

RevenueOperating expensesNOI

Line	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Total revenue	$2,219,539	$3,631,163	$4,560,098	$5,566,496	$6,655,970
Operating expenses	−$926,200	−$1,249,010	−$1,472,005	−$1,714,019	−$1,976,405
Net operating income	$1,293,339	$2,382,153	$3,088,093	$3,852,477	$4,679,566
Corporate ISR	−$339,894	−$666,538	−$878,320	−$1,107,635	−$1,355,762
After-tax free cash flow	$953,445	$1,715,615	$2,209,773	$2,744,842	$3,323,804

Modeled returns

The exit value changes everything.

Operating cash flow is positive in the model, but the largest return number comes from selling the stabilized business at the end of Year 5.

Unlevered IRR108.7%

Includes the modeled Year-5 sale.

NPV at 12%$34.3M

Includes the modeled Year-5 sale.

Simple payback2.04 yrs

Funded capital divided by Year-1 NOI.

Year-5 terminal value$52.0M

Year-5 NOI ÷ 9% cap rate.

Full planning tables

Every assumption and projection.

Open each group to review the full planning scenario. Dollar values are rounded to the nearest dollar on this page.

01Capital & land assumptions17 inputs

Input	Value	Unit	What it means
Land area selected	200,000	m²	Planning basis for this scenario; about 49 acres.
Land area selected	49.42	acres	Formula conversion from square meters.
Land price	$4	per m²	Planning price used in this scenario.
Land cost	$800,000	total	Calculated from land area × land price.
Development / owner oversight	$200,000	fixed budget	Fixed planning allowance for development oversight.
Soft costs	$11,000	total	Planning allowance for permits and survey work.
Site work	$195,000	total	Original site-work subtotal, excluding a placeholder.
Hard costs	$1,070,000	total	Planning allowance subject to final design and bids.
Contingency	10%	of soft + site + hard costs	Applied only to these three construction groups.
Contingency dollars	$127,600	total	Calculated from the 10% assumption.
Construction / equity subtotal	$2,403,600	total	Before opening working capital.
Working-capital reserve	3	months	Added because the prior model opened with no cash.
Working-capital reserve	$231,550	total	Three months of Year-1 operating expenses.
Total upfront funded capital	$2,635,150	total	Full project funding plus opening reserve.
Partner A contribution	$1,000,000	total	Land plus fixed development/oversight budget.
Partner B contribution	$1,635,150	total	Development costs plus working-capital reserve.
Debt funding	$0	total	No debt is assumed in this scenario.

02Operating & revenue assumptions35 inputs

Input	Value	Unit	What it means
Cabanas	32	units	Used consistently in lodging formulas.
Single-occupancy mix	20%	of cabanas	Planning mix used across the lodging calculation.
Double-occupancy mix	80%	of cabanas	Calculated as the balance after single occupancy.
Weekly single rate	$3,000	per week	Planning rate for a single-occupancy stay.
Weekly double rate	$4,000	per week	Planning rate for a double-occupancy stay.
Annual lodging-rate growth	5%	per year	Planning growth assumption.
Busy season	4	months	Planning length of the higher-demand season.
Slow season	8	months	The balance of the year.
Busy-season days	121.67	days	Four months allocated across a 365-day year.
Slow-season days	243.33	days	The remaining eight months of a 365-day year.
Year-1 revenue ramp	80%	of modeled revenue	Allows for a partial opening / ramp year.
Year 2+ revenue ramp	100%	of modeled revenue	Assumes stabilized operations after Year 1.
Restaurant operating days	182	days	Planning operating season.
Restaurant average daily revenue	$1,500	per day	Planning daily-revenue assumption.
Restaurant revenue growth	3%	per year	Planning growth assumption.
Food cost	30%	of restaurant revenue	Base food-cost assumption; the calculator can test alternatives.
Restaurant staff	15	people	Planning staffing level.
Restaurant staff cost	$40	per person per operating day	Applied to restaurant operating days.
Tours / rentals / misc. days	182	days	Planning operating season.
Tours / rentals / misc. rate	$550	per day	Planning average daily revenue.
Pickleball courts	4	courts	Court count used throughout the plan.
Sellable court time	8	hours per court per day	Described as a conservative average.
Court rental rate	$40	per court-hour	Base hourly rate used in the projections.
Year-1 court use	25%	of available hours	Rises by five points per year to 45% in Year 5.
Year-1 annual members	100	members	Rises by 25 members each year.
Membership fee	$750	per year	Base annual membership fee.
Year-1 programming	6	event weeks	Rises by two event weeks each year.
Participants per event week	32	people	Conservative event group.
Programming fee	$500	per participant	Clinic/tournament fee only; lodging is modeled separately.
Operating-expense inflation	5%	per year	Planning inflation assumption.
Booking / OTA commission	10%	of lodging revenue	Allowance for booking-channel costs.
Management fee	3%	of total revenue	Allowance for management costs.
Property tax	0.2%	of capital basis	Placeholder until the local assessment is confirmed.
Insurance	1%	of hard + site costs	Placeholder until an insurance quote is obtained.
Court / pool reserve	$20,000	per year	Reserve for resurfacing and pool work; grows with inflation.

03Tax, value & return assumptions7 inputs

Input	Value	Unit	What it means
Corporate ISR rate	30%	of taxable income	Uses taxable income after the depreciation proxy.
Tax depreciation proxy	10%	of depreciable basis	Simple straight-line proxy; replace with accountant-approved asset classes.
Depreciable basis	$1,603,600	total	Excludes land and working capital.
Discount rate	12%	per year	Used for the NPV calculation.
Terminal cap rate	9%	of Year-5 NOI	The biggest valuation lever and still needs market support.
Partner A distribution share	50%	of distributable cash	Both partners are deducted in the cash waterfall.
Partner B distribution share	50%	of distributable cash	Both partners are deducted in the cash waterfall.

04Capital funding7 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Partner A funding	$1,000,000	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Partner B funding	$1,635,150	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Debt funding	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Total sources	$2,635,150	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Capital expenditures	−$2,403,600	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Working-capital reserve funded	−$231,550	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Net opening cash	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

05Revenue drivers6 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Revenue ramp factor	0%	80%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Busy occupancy	0%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%
Slow occupancy	0%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%
Court utilization	0%	25%	30%	35%	40%	45%
Annual members	0	100	125	150	175	200
Programming weeks	0	6	8	10	12	14

06Revenue7 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Cabana rental income	$0	$1,690,819	$2,884,960	$3,728,256	$4,648,669	$5,651,803
Restaurant income	$0	$218,400	$281,190	$289,626	$298,314	$307,264
Tours / rentals / misc.	$0	$80,080	$103,103	$106,196	$109,382	$112,663
Court rental income	$0	$93,440	$140,160	$163,520	$186,880	$210,240
Membership income	$0	$60,000	$93,750	$112,500	$131,250	$150,000
Programming / clinic income	$0	$76,800	$128,000	$160,000	$192,000	$224,000
Total revenue	$0	$2,219,539	$3,631,163	$4,560,098	$5,566,496	$6,655,970

07Operating expenses14 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Restaurant food COGS	$0	−$65,520	−$84,357	−$86,888	−$89,494	−$92,179
Restaurant staff	$0	−$109,200	−$114,660	−$120,393	−$126,413	−$132,733
Booking / OTA commissions	$0	−$169,082	−$288,496	−$372,826	−$464,867	−$565,180
Marketing	$0	−$20,000	−$21,000	−$22,050	−$23,153	−$24,310
Housekeeping / property manager	$0	−$54,750	−$57,488	−$60,362	−$63,380	−$66,549
Utilities	$0	−$150,000	−$157,500	−$165,375	−$173,644	−$182,326
Starlink	$0	−$1,200	−$1,260	−$1,323	−$1,389	−$1,459
Landscaping	$0	−$84,000	−$88,200	−$92,610	−$97,241	−$102,103
Management fee	$0	−$66,586	−$108,935	−$136,803	−$166,995	−$199,679
Property tax	$0	−$4,130	−$4,337	−$4,553	−$4,781	−$5,020
Insurance	$0	−$12,650	−$13,283	−$13,947	−$14,644	−$15,376
Repair, maintenance & lodging reserve	$0	−$169,082	−$288,496	−$372,826	−$464,867	−$565,180
Court / pool reserve	$0	−$20,000	−$21,000	−$22,050	−$23,153	−$24,310
Total operating expenses	$0	−$926,200	−$1,249,010	−$1,472,005	−$1,714,019	−$1,976,405

08Profitability & tax5 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Net operating income	$0	$1,293,339	$2,382,153	$3,088,093	$3,852,477	$4,679,566
Tax depreciation deduction	$0	$160,360	$160,360	$160,360	$160,360	$160,360
Taxable income	$0	$1,132,979	$2,221,793	$2,927,733	$3,692,117	$4,519,206
Corporate ISR	$0	−$339,894	−$666,538	−$878,320	−$1,107,635	−$1,355,762
After-tax free cash flow	$0	$953,445	$1,715,615	$2,209,773	$2,744,842	$3,323,804

09Cash-flow waterfall6 lines

Line item	2026 · Y0	2027 · Y1	2028 · Y2	2029 · Y3	2030 · Y4	2031 · Y5
Beginning cash balance	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
After-tax free cash flow	$0	$953,445	$1,715,615	$2,209,773	$2,744,842	$3,323,804
Partner A distribution	$0	$476,723	$857,807	$1,104,887	$1,372,421	$1,661,902
Partner B distribution	$0	$476,723	$857,807	$1,104,887	$1,372,421	$1,661,902
Total distributions	$0	$953,445	$1,715,615	$2,209,773	$2,744,842	$3,323,804
Ending cash balance	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

10Valuation & return calculations5 outputs

Output	Model value	Plain-language note
Year-5 terminal value	$51,995,175	Year-5 NOI divided by the 9% terminal cap rate.
Year-5 cash flow including terminal value	$55,318,979	Year-5 free cash flow plus the modeled sale value.
Unlevered IRR	108.7%	Calculated on the full $2.64M funded capital and the terminal-value scenario.
NPV at 12%	$34,290,562	Present value using the model’s 12% discount rate.
Simple payback	2.04 years	Time for cumulative modeled operating cash flow to cover funded capital.